One country attacked another (Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), which limited some agricultural supplies (Ukraine is one of the world’s top producers of sunflower oil, barley, maize, and wheat).
Numerous countries, including the United States, are still dealing with inflationary pressures from the global pandemic.
Extreme weather always seems to be causing chaos to people, livestock, and food production.
The combinations of those challenges make the anxious feel like the world is “on fire.”
“It can get a lot worse, or it can get better,” Cliff Kupchan told American Farmland Owner in Des Moines, Iowa, where he served as a headline speaker at the 18th Annual Land Investment Expo.
(Note: American Farmland Owner was a media sponsor of the Land Investment Expo.)
Kupchan is Chairman of Eurasia Group. He speaks fluent Russian and is an internationally recognized expert on Russia, Ukraine, Iran, and U.S.-China relations.
His career has taken him across the globe as he has developed geopolitical expertise after working with the U.S. Department of State and the House International Relations Committee of the US Congress, where he served as the top foreign policy adviser on Russia and North Africa.
RELATED: Cliff Kupchan warned in 2022 that Russia’s attack of Ukraine will have lasting harm. “Like the pandemic, the war in Ukraine will last for many years, which will amplify its impact as a long-term driver of deglobalization. Both sides want the same land, believe time is on their side, and have no trust in the other. Ceasefires are possible, but lasting peace will be elusive,” Kupchan wrote. Read his full thoughts here.
His experience leads him to the conclusion that an absence of leadership in the world is part of the reason for so much chaos. Agriculture, like nearly every other industry, can’t reach its potential without leadership, according to Kupchan.
“We need institutions that countries around the world think are legitimate,” Kupchan explained. “Until we get to that point, we get more wars like Russia and Ukraine. We’ll get more skirmishes in China. We’ll get more stuff going on in the Middle East. States and people are not satisfied with the level of international governance.”
RELATED: In 2002, Cliff Kupchan joined Charles Kupchan to write an article on what could have led to an emerging relationship between President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladmir Putin.
Agricultural producers and investors may have numerous questions about Donald Trump’s administration. How will he lead? What policies will he push? How will the success or failure of those priorities impact inflation, workforce, and food production?
Kupchan is looking at those questions. He was a leading voice in The Eurasia Group’s 2025 Top Risks Report.
“Eurasia Group has warned for over a decade now about the dangers of a G-Zero world: an era when no one power or group of powers is both willing and able to drive a global agenda and maintain international order. That global leadership deficit is growing critically dangerous,” the report stated.
The absence of global leadership will weaken the world overall, the report laid out. “In 2025, this is a recipe for endemic geopolitical instability that will weaken the world's security and economic architecture, create new and expanding power vacuums, embolden rogue actors, and increase the likelihood of accidents, miscalculation, and conflict. The risk of a generational world crisis, even a new global war, is higher than at any point in our lifetimes.”
Trump’s second term in office, assisted by Republican control in both chambers of Congress and loyalists in key administration positions, will bring a new focus for the United States before the rest of the world.
Kupchan and his colleagues believe that Trump 2.0 could be different than 1.0.
“Donald Trump's second term will not be like his first,” the report stated. “Emboldened by the scale of his 2024 electoral triumph and the firm support of a unified Republican Party, Trump is coming into office more experienced and better organized than in 2017, surrounded by battle-hardened loyalists with a stronger sense of how to wield the levers of bureaucratic control.”
“The incoming president's consolidated control over the congressional GOP, a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court, and a more enabling media environment characterized by the growing influence of Twitter/X and populist podcasts will all help him advance his agenda in his second term.”
But Kupchan doesn’t see that additional Republican support pushing Trump to become the global leader to fill the current void.
“The American people do not support a highly robust role in the world for the United States,”
Kupchan said, “And given the inwardly looking, anti-free trade sentiment in this country, I think it’s going to be very hard for us to lead…until we get back to our values from 10-15 years ago…unless we get back to them, and that’s just not likely.”
Cliff Kupchan was a featured speaker at the 18th Annual Land Investment Expo in Des Moines, Iowa. To learn about how to get a discounted admission to next year’s Expo, click here.
